As the year and the decade draw to a close, a reflection …

Humankind has made many great strides in the past 10 years. We’ve grown in our understanding of the global challenges we can only resolve by working together. We’ve summoned up the will to make meaningful improvements in the condition of our planet and its people. We’ve advanced the technology and know-how it will take to bring those changes to life.

To all who have made a mindful choice to do something, great or small, to drive positive change for the next generations, I say “thank you.”

And in that same spirit, here’s a New Year’s wish to the world – from policy makers and business leaders to scientists and inventors … from the farmers who feed us to the children who look to us to protect their future:

If you are weak, may you find an advocate to champion your cause – and if you are powerful, may you be graced with the insight, fairness and courage to be that advocate. May each of us have the vision and resources required to act for long-term prosperity rather than short-term gain. May all creatures who share this Earth have fresh air, clean water and shelter from the elements. And may we all find sustenance and comfort, for body and soul.

In Einstein’s wise words, “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” Here’s to a new way of thinking … in a New Year filled with peace and good will.

It appears that world leaders have reached an agreement—well into the night in Copenhagen.  Insiders are saying it provides a means to monitor and verify emissions cuts by developing countries but has less ambitious climate targets than the United States and European governments had initially sought.

The deal was brokered by a handful of countries—U.S., China, India, and South Africa.  We’ll take the weekend and analyze information coming out of Copenhagen and provide a summary of the agreement on Monday.  Watch President Obama’s press conference here.

With literally hours remaining before the COP 15 conference ends, President Obama spoke at the climate conference.  Obama shredded his prepared schedule a few minutes after landing in Copenhagen Friday, racing from the airport to an emergency meeting with 18 other leaders from large nations in a last-ditch effort to save the foundering climate change conference.

When he did address the delegates, Obama didn’t offer any new concessions, but he outlined the U.S. position:

1. Climate mitigation—binding greenhouse gas emissions
2. Transparency and verification of emissions reporting by all countries
3. Long term financing for developing countries

The second point—transparency and verification—is the key sticking point between China and the U.S.  The U.S. and its allies have taken the position that countries providing funds — as the United States would — have the right to verify the emissions reporting of countries receiving funds (Such as China and its allies — primarily the G77).

Many believe if the U.S. and China can resolve this difference, some type of political framework can be agreed upon that would lay the foundation for a binding agreement in Mexico next year.  Immediately following the conclusion of his remarks, Obama and Premier Wen Jiabao met for nearly an hour and both sides that progress had been made.  While not saying they had reached a breakthrough, both sides did say that progress had been made on verification and both leaders instructed their teams to keep talking.

FH colleague, Michael Berendt, wrote a commentary piece that appeared in today’s China Daily.  It’s a look back over the past two weeks at Copenhagen and discuses the prospects for a deal and future challenges and opportunities.  It’s a perfect “curtain-raiser” for the last day of negotiations and places today’s activities in Copenhagen in context.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2009-12/18/content_9197009.htm

Stay tuned.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton came to Copenhagen today and announced that the U.S. will help raise $100 billion annually through 2020 to help developing countries reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.  Long term finance assistance remains one of the key sticking points between the developed and developing countries.

The money would come from public and private funds mobilized by the United States and other unspecified nations.  But, it will only happen if major emerging developing countries agree to binding emission targets that can be verified internationally.  In effect, the U.S. is tying this carrot of financial assistance to another sticking point in the negotiations—countries like China and India agree to binding agreements that can be independently verified. Clinton stated in very clear terms that “if there is not even a commitment to pursue transparency, it’s a deal breaker for us.” 

The proposed fund is on the low end of what the European Union and others say is needed Clinton also stressed that the aid would go only to the poorest countries.  It remains unclear what portion would come from the United States, and Clinton did not specify how much immediate money would be available from America.

Immediate reaction from environmental activists was positive and said the announcement now puts the onus on China to compromise.

More than 110 heads of state are set to arrive in the Danish capital over the course of the next 48 hours to launch the final summit session. Several will speak to delegates today, including Ethiopian prime minister and Africa’s lead U.N. negotiator Meles Zenawi and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

It appears that on almost every point of contention, countries have drifted further apart since the conference began. That’s brought home by the latest draft agreement, which leaves, for later this week, pretty much everything that is controversial—how much to cut emissions by in each country; who will pay and how much; how to verify what other countries are doing on emissions; and, how to rectify any climate deal with international trade agreements.

China and the U.S. continue to exchange public barbs.  The U.S. and China are at odds over how much wealthy economies should pay poorer countries to deal with global warming, emissions-reduction goals and how to ensure that countries live up to their pledges to curb climate change.

President Obama is feeling the heat back home too—more than two dozen of the United States’ most prominent manufacturers, utilities and technology companies.  Yesterday, they sent a letter to Obama urging to take a leadership role when he arrives in Copenhagen on Friday and to secure an aggressive international climate agreement.

“This agreement has to include significant near- and long-term emissions reductions targets and strong finance provisions, with a substantial commitment of new long-term finance from developed nations, including the United States,” the companies write.

The letter’s signers include Nike, Dow Chemical, Microsoft and Ingersoll Rand, as well as power providers Northern Grid, PG&E and PSEG. They stress the importance of an international climate agreement for leveraging private investment — a point made repeatedly by investor groups at the Copenhagen conference — and for spurring Congress and governments worldwide to give businesses the regulatory certainty they need to plan ahead.

The letter also states “We must put the United States on the path to significant emissions reductions, a stronger economy, and a new position of leadership in the global effort to stabilize our climate. The costs of inaction far outweigh the costs of action. Our environment and economy are at stake.”

In addition, the group calls for an agreement on technology transfer that is careful to protect intellectual property rights while also providing clean technologies and manufacturing know-how to start poor countries on a low-carbon path to development.

Gordon Brown said in remarks earlier today that there is a potential breakthrough on one of the key sticking points between rich and poor nations.  In a press conference expected later today, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is expected to discuss details of a compromise from poor countries that could offer an agreement on long term financial commitment to help poor countries adapt to the effects climate change is having on their countries.

With heads of state descending on Copenhagen, the negotiations are reaching crunch time.

Last week had its dramas—leaked drafts, tiny nations walking out, and rifts between the U.S. and China over emission reduction targets.  But, that was a prelude to the real action that will unfold this week when world leaders arrive and the real negotiations begin.  The negotiations are framed around 4 pillars:

• Mitigation
• Adaptation
• Technology transfer
• Finance & investment

First and foremost, there is the question of how far developed countries are willing to cut emissions by 2050.  President Obama arrives Friday and is expected to take the podium.  But, analysts doubt he can offer much more than the targets he has already proposed—somewhere in the range of 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020.  Related, there is also the broader question of whether the world can keep temperatures from rising no more than 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius.  Small island nations, most impacted by rising sea levels, have indicated that what’s been proposed so far is insufficient. 

Equally contentious is the problem of developing countries like China, India and Brazil and what they are willing to do to help avert climate change.  While all three countries have come out with reduction targets, none is willing to be held legally bound to achieve their stated reductions.  They see these as voluntary commitments and resist any resist any suggestion that they should be subject to international control. 

The big battle, however, is over longer-term finance to help poorer countries adapt to the worst impacts of climate change and help them begin to mitigate their own carbon emissions.  Industrialized countries have proposed a $10 billion “fast-start” fund for immediate needs through 2012.  And, a consensus has emerged among the same countries that the long term investment should be about $100 billion a year. On the other hand, developing countries — and some pressure groups like the World Wildlife Fund–say it needs to be much more, but even $100 billion will be hard to achieve. President Obama will be severely constrained on what he can offer while climate legislation remains held up in the U.S. Senate, and other nations will not want to commit until they see some sign of U.S. intent. 

Finally, there are arguments over the very form of any deal. As reported last week, developing countries are insisting on retaining and improving the Kyoto Protocol, but its very name is a deal breaker in the United States.  And, Russia is rumored to be privately turning against it. The likeliest outcome is a toughened Kyoto Protocol, with a linked treaty covering the United States and developing countries and new agreements made in Copenhagen.

Negotiations could end up being all or nothing—one big package or nothing at all.  And, it may all come down to the last few hours of the last day.  It promises to be a nail biter.  Stay tuned.

As COP15 heads into the second and crucial week of negotiations, both Channing and I spent a considerable amount of time talking to individual companies and attending sessions that featured a diverse set of business perspectives on the negotiations.  For those businesses attending the conference, several themes emerged outlining the “gotta haves” for them to make the type of investments that will usher in a low-carbon economy.

1. Clearer rules: Businesses here are looking for certainty in any regulatory scheme that evolves from these negotiations.  Clearer rules will help give investors the confidence to put money into clean technology.  One CEO told us “clean tech is one of the largest emerging markets the world has seen.”
2. Level playing field: In climate change terms this means an international carbon market that ensures carbon price stability, as well as unified and reliable measurement, reporting and verification.  This will enable fair competition and a meaningful comparison of companies’ performances.
3. The cost of carbon: Business is looking for price signals to emerge from the negotiations and the type of emissions trading that will be established.
4. Clear emissions reduction target: Without clear reduction goals and market mechanisms companies may hold back on investment, despite having the technology and the know-how to deliver the required solutions.

Business interests here at the conference are also actively trying to impact the direction of the negotiations.  In advance of COP 15, the Prince of Wales Foundation submitted to the U.N. a Copenhagen Communiqué on Climate Change that outlined the components of any agreement.  The communiqué was signed by more than 800 global companies, including U.S. companies like Nike, Starbucks and Yahoo.

Additionally, this past Saturday evening, business leaders met at Kronborg Castle, the castle that allegedly inspired Shakespeare to create Hamlet.  Several U.S. companies outlined the current low carbon products and activities they currently have on the market.  These companies have a clear commitment to climate change and have identified the key obstacles they hope are removed during this conference so that they can even more aggressively capture the waiting low carbon market.

That said, there’s a sense here that the companies in Copenhagen don’t reflect the mainstream of corporate America, where big lobbies like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Manufacturers oppose the climate bills pending in Congress.  Still, they are hoping that the negotiations at the COP 15 do not turn out to be, as Shakespeare once wrote, “much ado about nothing.”

“Where Will You Be in 2050?” The bright orange shirts, worn yesterday by COP15’s youngest participants, seemed to mock my rapidly advancing age. And they were everywhere. The shirts were a show of solidarity among the various youth groups here at Copenhagen. They also represented an influential bloc of voices maneuvering to be heard in this increasingly hyperactive place.

By some counts there are more than 1,000 young people here from at least 100 countries. Last weekend they organized their own youth conference. And at COP15, they’re energizing the climate talks with clever protests and studied engagement on big issues like preserving the planet for future generations.  Following Energy Secretary Jackson’s speech this week, I overheard two young women talking about a high school-aged student who questioned Jackson about the recent endangerment ruling. “He’s like that all the time, at every session. I’m glad he did it!” one proudly exclaimed.

Over coffee yesterday with Katie Fehrenbacher of Earth2Tech, the writer observed that young people are smartly using new media – such as Twitter, Facebook and YouTube – to organize themselves and influence mainstream media. There was little doubt in our minds that youth activism helped drive coverage around little discussed issues and countries. Groups like Tck Tck Tck and 350.org are creating a buzz here, while Fehrenbacher also singled out Alliance for Climate Education, a California-based group that encourages youth to stay involved in the climate debate.

I caught up with a representative from Project Survival Media, a global network of young journalists. When I asked whether he believed the youth voice was being heard here, the excitable young staffer paused for a moment and said, “It’s hard to say right now. But eventually, we’ll be the ones making the decisions.”

So where will you be in 2050?

“It’s hard to convince people to recycle when they don’t even have jobs or food to eat,” said Esther Agbrakwe, a UN regional coordinator out of Nigeria.

Esther crystallized one of the great challenges facing governments, non-governmental organizations and business interests watching Copenhagen: How to take a long-term view on protecting the environment, when entire populations are consumed with day-to-day survival.

I met this impressive woman while on an information-gathering stroll around the Bella Center yesterday.  In addition to her UN work, Esther is an organizer for Nigerian Youth Climate Coalition, a group she describes as an “awareness-to-action” organization.  She says the vast majority of young Nigerians are unaware of environmental issues and the small but powerful things individuals can do to make a difference.  Esther is working with partners to educate and motivate young people to curb environmental waste.  “But one step at a time,” Esther cautioned, “I won’t succeed if I am too ambitious.”  When she’s not organizing global and regional gatherings, Esther’s thinking about her next project, a drive to create and sell Christmas cards made with recycled paper.

On a much larger scale is the work of Paul Schopf, director of the Center for Climate and Society at George Mason University.  Schopf is in town to show a film about large-scale ecosystem restoration projects in China, Ethiopia and Rwanda.  These projects breathe life into large swaths of barren lands destroyed by poor agriculture practices.  They turn the lands into lush, productive landscapes that thrive with vegetation and support more vibrant local economies.  Researchers recently worked with the Chinese government on a 10-year project to restore an area the size of Belgium.  It’s a fascinating case study on how human behavior can both degrade and replenish the environment on a massive scale.

One other massive issue on the minds of negotiators is the tiny island nations arguing about climate change.  Something must be done, they say, about melting polar ice caps, which are causing ocean levels to rise and producing more extreme weather conditions – all threats to their survival.  Earth2Tech’s Katie Fehrenbacher published a map of islands like Tuvalu that are making news in Copenhagen.  Read more here.

Smarter electricity consumption requires smarter rules for power suppliers. That was the message yesterday from the Council of European Energy Regulators (CEER) during a panel about smart grid innovation. As energy demands multiply across the planet, smart grids are emerging as the future of electricity management. A smart grid is a technology network that uses information and communications technology (ICT) to save energy, potentially reduce costs and increase reliability of electricity.

Una Shortall of CEER, a not-for-profit association representing European Union national energy regulators, said European regulators are increasingly employing incentives, for example, that reward utilities for creating more energy efficient electricity networks such as smart grids. Shortall said this would spur innovation and help ease future power grid burdens as more power-hungry electric vehicles roll into European streets.

The EU is not alone pushing smart grid technology. Earlier this year, President Obama announced a $3.4 billion investment to begin a U.S. transition to smart grids. The Electric Power Research Institute says bringing ICT innovations to the nation’s power grid could reduce America’s electricity usage by up to 4.3 percent by 2030. One of the COP15 panelists, California Public Utility Commissioner Dian Grueneich, said that California’s transition is already underway and that its smart grid program will be 100 percent deployed by 2012.

Speaking of smarter energy management, the good Samaritan award goes to Adams and Andrew of the Malawi delegation. They loaned me a spare laptop power cord after I lost mine somewhere in this massive conference hall. In exchange for the extra juice, I promised to make them famous in America. Safe travels home, gentlemen!