Insights from Copenhagen: The Second Half

Last week had its dramas—leaked drafts, tiny nations walking out, and rifts between the U.S. and China over emission reduction targets.  But, that was a prelude to the real action that will unfold this week when world leaders arrive and the real negotiations begin.  The negotiations are framed around 4 pillars:

• Mitigation
• Adaptation
• Technology transfer
• Finance & investment

First and foremost, there is the question of how far developed countries are willing to cut emissions by 2050.  President Obama arrives Friday and is expected to take the podium.  But, analysts doubt he can offer much more than the targets he has already proposed—somewhere in the range of 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020.  Related, there is also the broader question of whether the world can keep temperatures from rising no more than 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius.  Small island nations, most impacted by rising sea levels, have indicated that what’s been proposed so far is insufficient. 

Equally contentious is the problem of developing countries like China, India and Brazil and what they are willing to do to help avert climate change.  While all three countries have come out with reduction targets, none is willing to be held legally bound to achieve their stated reductions.  They see these as voluntary commitments and resist any resist any suggestion that they should be subject to international control. 

The big battle, however, is over longer-term finance to help poorer countries adapt to the worst impacts of climate change and help them begin to mitigate their own carbon emissions.  Industrialized countries have proposed a $10 billion “fast-start” fund for immediate needs through 2012.  And, a consensus has emerged among the same countries that the long term investment should be about $100 billion a year. On the other hand, developing countries — and some pressure groups like the World Wildlife Fund–say it needs to be much more, but even $100 billion will be hard to achieve. President Obama will be severely constrained on what he can offer while climate legislation remains held up in the U.S. Senate, and other nations will not want to commit until they see some sign of U.S. intent. 

Finally, there are arguments over the very form of any deal. As reported last week, developing countries are insisting on retaining and improving the Kyoto Protocol, but its very name is a deal breaker in the United States.  And, Russia is rumored to be privately turning against it. The likeliest outcome is a toughened Kyoto Protocol, with a linked treaty covering the United States and developing countries and new agreements made in Copenhagen.

Negotiations could end up being all or nothing—one big package or nothing at all.  And, it may all come down to the last few hours of the last day.  It promises to be a nail biter.  Stay tuned.