
The future?
A new study released earlier this month by the University of California, Berkeley held exciting news for the burgeoning electric car market: electric car sales could jump to 86 percent of U.S. light vehicle sales in 2030 if consumers don’t have to buy their batteries themselves.
Considering that auto emissions are one of the largest contributors of carbon dioxide in our country, this forecast means Americans could soon be enjoying reduced smog in our cities and increased energy independence.
But before we all celebrate the dawn of the plug-in hybrid age, two questions remain unresolved. First, can technology keep pace with demand? And second, who will pay for the requisite infrastructure?
As with most renewable power technologies, advancing technology toward cost-competitiveness with fossil fuels remains the holy grail of electric vehicles. Batteries are the most expensive part of electric vehicles, and their range is somewhat limited. Funding is flowing from the federal government toward next-generation battery research, including billions in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 and $8 billion in loans to car makers. Lithium-ion batteries, common in cell phones, are moving forward at research centers like GM’s new Global Battery Systems Lab, but aren’t yet manufactured at a commercial scale.

System schematic
Beyond technology, the sheer cost of this endeavor stands in the way of the desired reality. Theoretically, plug-in electric vehicles could diversify our electrical system and create millions of micro power generators to use during peak demand. But, this would require expanding our transmission infrastructure and creating a true Smart Grid with upgraded utility technology to regulate the flow of power. Companies like Better Place are building swap-out charging stations to centralize the network, but all of this constitutes hundreds of billions worth of investment over many years, and the global economic slowdown makes this an uphill climb.
But all the news is not bad. Toyota and Honda are already firmly established in the plug-in hybrid market, and companies like Tesla, Chevrolet, and Mitsubishi announce milestones with their respective models almost every day. Market competition will no doubt drive innovation and advances in technology. Consumer attitudes toward electric vehicles seem to have shifted, and if the Waxman-Markey climate change bill passes the Senate, even more funding and incentive will be created for those pursuing advanced electrical vehicle technologies.
It’s clear that the age of electric cars, so often seen as a distant speck on the horizon, is drawing very near with the quiet whirr of a non-combustion engine. The only question remaining is when we’ll all be able to press the “on” button.